Now that’s what I’m talking about!

After several brutal weeks of NFL predictions, I’ve finally restored faith in my ability to pick the winners in football games. I managed to get more than three-quarters of my NFL predictions correct for Week 10.

You know what makes this week’s performance particularly frightening? I actually predicted that I would get 10 right. You can see my comment on Nick’s blog. I wrote that comment on Saturday.

Most games went according to plan this week. The Titans, despite having their rushing game completely shut down by the Chicago Bears, managed to remain undefeated. Minnesota came out on top, but couldn’t cover the spread. I’m almost glad that I was wrong about the Pittsburgh-Indianapolis game, because I really want to see Peyton and the Colts make the playoffs.

One of the crazier games had to be the one between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers aren’t what they used to be (some analysts are saying the absence of Shawne Merriman is to blame), but I thought that they’d be able to beat the Chiefs. They did, but it came down to the wire.

In fact, the Chiefs had an opportunity to win, scoring a touchdown as the fourth quarter drew to a close. This brought them within one point. Instead of taking the “free” extra point to force overtime, the Bolts went for a two-point conversion for the win. And failed. And lost. I think that’s poor coaching.

It doesn’t seem to matter much if my NFL predictions appear sound these days. I can take a look at the trends and how teams have been performing recently. I can look into the history of the matchups and how previous games have worked out. Unfortunately, these “sound” predictions have not been working out lately.

For some of my NFL Week 10 predictions, I went a little against my gut in an effort to reverse this trend toward sub-mediocrity. While I would certainly love to get all of my picks right this week, I am only going to set a modest goal of getting at least 50% right. I have to be more accurate than flipping a coin, right?

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
As well as Aaron Rodgers has been doing, relatively speaking, the Vikings are a stronger team. Adrian Peterson has been impressive and with such a small spread, Minnesota should be able to come out on top and win by at least a field goal.
Pick: Vikings

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-3.5)
I’ve said before that the Bills are the real deal, but New England has proven that it can still be a serious playoff contender even in the absence of superstar quarterback Tom Brady. Yes, the Pats dropped the ball against the Colts last week, but you can expect them to bounce back against Buffalo.
Pick: Patriots

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Chicago Bears
A trip to the Windy City will be a challenging one for the undefeated Tennessee Titans, but the Titans have demonstrated their ability to rise to the occasion and even snatch victories when coming from behind. It’ll be tough, but I’m rooting for a Titan undefeated season. Take that, Pats!
Pick: Titans

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-0.5)
Both of these teams are relatively young and they’ve got a couple of younger guys on there that are leading the charge. Matt Ryan has been very impressive for the Falcons, even outperforming Michael Vick. This could be one of the more exciting games of the week. Watch it if you can.
Pick: Falcons

St. Louis Rams at New York Jets (-8.5)
Brett Favre is nowhere near as dominant as he was during his younger years and the Jets aren’t exactly the most impressive of teams in the league, but the Rams are simply hopeless. This is one of the picks where I am going against my gut, because I find it unlikely that the Jets will cover the point spread. Then again, stranger things have happened.
Pick: Jets

Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) at Detroit Lions
I find it a little hard to believe that Jacksonville is an abysmal 3-5 thus far this season, but I see no reason why the Lions will snap its winless streak this week. Ed Lau’s wish of a team going without a single victory just might happen.
Pick: Jaguars

Seattle Seahakws at Miami Dolphins (-8.5)
The Seahawks have been decimated with injuries and they perform remarkably poorly on the road. The Dolphins have come up with a few surprise victories, but they’re not exactly stellar either. However this game turns out, I think that it could be close, so I’ll take the conservative route on this one.
Pick: Seahawks

Baltimore Ravens (-0.5) at Houston Texans
As I’ve said in previous weeks, I still think of the Texans as some expansion team in its building stages, but Houston has stepped up its game this year for sure. The Ravens have been taken down a notch or two from their former glory, but Baltimore should be able to come out on top.
Pick: Ravens

Carolina Panthers (-8.5) at Oakland Raiders
Jake Delhomme and the rest of the crew in Carolina have been a bit of a sleeper hit this season, rising to the top of a competitive division and winning four of their last five. The spread is a little big on this game, but Oakland doesn’t stand a chance. Too bad. I like the passion of the Raider Nation.
Pick: Panthers

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
This is a must-win for Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts. They managed to secure a win over the Patriots last week, but they’re going to struggle against the strength of Pittsburgh. “Big” Ben Roethlisberger did not practice, but I hope he plays.
Pick: Steelers

Kansas City Chief at San Diego Chargers (-14.5)
The Chargers are great and all, but winning by more than two touchdowns against any team is quite a feat. If they prove me wrong here, so be it.
Pick: Chiefs

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
How can you go against the Super Bowl champions? Even though the Giants have only dropped a single game this season, they go into Philadelphia as the underdog. That’s okay. The Giants are used to it and they still manage to win. Go Eli. You’re the better Manning now.
Pick: Giants

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-9.5)
It helps when you play in a hopeless division. Thanks to the positively dismal performances of the Rams and the Seahawks, the Arizona Cardinals have somehow managed to emerge as the leader in the NFC West. Edgerrin James may be a shadow of his former self and Kurt Warner is past his prime, but they’re winning enough games to lead the division. Expect a Monday Night win over the division rival Niners. I’m just not as sure that the Cards will cover the spread.
Pick: Cardinals

It’s official. If you want to make any kind of money betting on football, you should look at my NFL predictions and pick the complete opposite. Week 9 has not been any friendlier to me than Week 8. What really pains me is that I would have been better off just flipping a coin.

Ironically, when I posted my predictions for Week 9, I got a comment from Chris Bibey saying that my picks seemed sound on paper. They did, but they also happen to be completely wrong in reality. I think it’s time that I rethink my strategy.

Anyhow, some of the most notable games this week involved the first win of the season for the Cincinnati Bengals, the ongoing success of the Tennessee Titans (a slim victory over the Packers), and the continued downward spiral of the Dallas Cowboys. They’re practically out of the playoffs.

On the bright side, Peyton Manning and the Colts kept their playoff dreams alive with a win over rival New England Patriots. The Colts-Pats game wasn’t nearly as thrilling as previous years, but it was still entertaining.

First of all, I’d like to wish everyone a happy and safe Halloween. You know what would be really spooky? What would be really scary and terribly eerie? The thing that would frighten me the most is if I finally crack the deplorable NFL football pick performance that I’ve been enduring lately. Wouldn’t it be so creepy if I got all of my picks right this week? Maybe not. But it’d be nice. On with the football!

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
Although the Bills lost to the Dolphins last week, I still think that they are a solid team and should be able to handle Brett Favre and the Jets in this battle for New York supremacy. Um, let’s leave the Super Bowl champs out of the New York battle for now.
Pick: Buffalo

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-12.5)
The Lions have absolutely no chance of winning this game, but a nearly two touchdown spread is pretty huge. Kyle Orton has the potential. I hope he can pull through for me.
Pick: Chicago

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Get this. A Bengal wide receiver is mouthing off in the media again, but it’s not Ocho Cinco. Instead, it’s T. J. Houshmandzadeh who has guaranteed that Cincinnati won’t go 0-16 this season. Unfortunately for T.J., the first win isn’t coming against the Jaguars of Jacksonville.
Pick: Jacksonville

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-1.5)
I’m actually quite surprised that the Browns are favored in this game, because the Ravens have shown time and time again that they can bring it when it counts. Bring it, Ray Lewis. Bring the hammer down.
Pick: Baltimore

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Fighting through the NFC South, the Bucs have managed to hold their quite well. The Chiefs, by contrast, really bring nothing to the table. I’m not sure if Tampa will win by more than a touchdown, but I’m hopeful.
Pick: Tampa Bay

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
The Texans have shown me something this year. I still think of Houston as an expansion team in its “growing” stages, but if it weren’t for the tough AFC South division (Indy, Jacksonville, and Tennessee), I think the Texans would have a better record than their current 3-4. I foresee an upset here.
Pick: Houston

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at St. Louis Rams
The Cards aren’t great, but they’re head and shoulders above the Rams.
Pick: Arizona

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-5.5)
Can Aaron Rodgers slow down the seemingly unstoppable Tennessee Titans? After battling back against the Colts last week, the Titans demonstrated that they can not only build a lead, but they can also overcome a deficit. Let’s keep this undefeated streak going.
Pick: Tennessee

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Denver has the worst defence in the league, but they’ve also got one of the most promising quarterbacks in Jay Cutler. Miami stunned Buffalo last week, but their offence will struggle at Mile High. Don’t expect much in terms of defence from either squad.
Pick: Denver

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-8.5)
This is a must win for the Cowboys and I know that they’re going to have some trouble with the defending Super Bowl champions. Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, and the rest of the Dallas crew certainly have their hands full. Even if they don’t come out on top, I don’t think the Giants are going to trounce them by more than 9 points.
Pick: Dallas

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Oakland Raiders
Matt Ryan has been quite impressive lately and the Falcons’ surprise ascension in the NFL ranks should continue with a victory over the hopeless Raiders of Oakland.
Pick: Atlanta

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Qwest Field may be one of the most difficult stadiums for visiting teams, but the Seahawks are injury-ridden and increasingly disorganized. Philly’s not exactly on the rise, but it’ll stride over the ‘hawks.
Pick: Philadelphia

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
This is always one of the most hotly anticipated games of the year. They’re always great, but this year’s game is a little deflating with the ongoing struggles of the Colts and the lack of the Tom Brady for the Pats. This could really go either way and it’s really a must-win for the Colts if they hope to make the playoffs as a wild card. It’ll be tight, so I’ll take the conservative route and opt for the slight underdog. This way, if the Colts win in a tight one, I’ll still be right.
Pick: New England

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins (-1.5)
I’ve been impressed the Redskins, despite some of their pitfalls over the course of year. Monday Night should be a good game and I’m going to lean toward the home team.
Pick: Washington

Going into this week in the NFL, I tried my best to stay as optimistic as possible. Unfortunately, words cannot describe just how frustrated I am. The graph is pretty self-explanatory.

The Monday Night Football game between the still undefeated Tennessee Titans and the formerly glorious Indianapolis Colts was particularly frustrating, because the Colts unnecessarily “went for it” on fourth down (unsuccessfully). This resulted in a scoring frenzy from the Titans, Even though Kerry Collins did not throw a single touchdown pass, Tennessee came out on top. Sigh.

Perhaps the best thing about professional sports is also the worst thing. You can try and make good predictions, but they’ll always throw you a curve ball when you least expect it. Last year’s champion can be this year’s chump. A team can follow an impressive victory with a stunning defeat. And the Dallas Cowboys can lose to the St. Louis Rams. Stupid Terrell Owens. Stupid Brad Johnson.

I’m trying to enter Week 8 in the NFL with an air of optimism, but there’s no way I’ll know how things will pan out until I watch the games on Sunday. As before, all of these picks are based on the point spread, as provided by Caesar’s in Las Vegas. Wish my luck!

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
The Ravens are a better team than their 3-3 record would lead you to believe. Coming off a solid victory in Miami, I see no reason why they won’t have a field day at home against the Raiders.
Pick: Baltimore

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-4.5)
Despite being in one of the competitive divisions in the league, the Panthers have done very well for themselves. Jake Delhomme is taking home another win for Carolina.
Pick: Carolina

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)
Without Tony Romo at the helm and with the rest of the team not performing up to their usual standards, the Dallas Cowboys are a shadow of their former selves. The Bucs, by contrast, have had a great season and they continue to do well. It really pains me to go against the ‘boys, but I’m going to lean toward Tampa for this one.
Pick: Tampa Bay

Washington Redskins (-7.5) at Detroit Lions
Detroit remains winless on the season and I have every reason that will continue after Sunday’s game. At the same time, the Redskins have not exactly been dominating in their wins, so I don’t see them winning by more than a touchdown.
Pick: Detroit

Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Bills are the real deal, even if they’re not earning the proper respect in the league. It’ll be interesting to see how the rest of their season pans out.
Pick: Buffalo

St. Louis Rams at New England Patriots (-6.5)
St. Louis is hopeless. Yes, they have a two-game winning streak, including victories over Washington and Dallas, but they’re really not that good. The Patriots proved last week that they can win without Tom Brady and Matt Cassel is starting to get in a groove. I don’t think the Pats are going to win the Super Bowl, but they’ll beat the Rams for sure.
Pick: New England

San Diego Chargers (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints
This was one of the more difficult decisions of the week, but the Saints are going to be missing out on some key personnel, including Jeremy Shockey and Reggie Bush. It’ll be a battle, but the Bolts should come out on top.
Pick: San Diego

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets (-13.5)
I’m reasonably sure that Brett Favre will win this game for his home crowd, but a two touchdown spread is a bit much for the relatively lacklustre Jets.
Pick: Kansas City

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)
After winning a couple of close games with Green Bay and Chicago, the Falcons are poised for quite the upswing. They’re in the highly competitive NFC South and Matt Ryan is getting better by the day. Regardless of who comes out on top, this is going to be a close game. Philly is not covering the spread.
Pick: Atlanta

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)
Some pundits had high hopes for the Browns going into this season and they have largely been disappointed. Give this one to the Jags.
Pick: Jacksonville

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-9.5)
Chad “Ocho Cinco” Johnson and the rest of the Bengal crew really need to get their act together. I don’t think they’re getting their first win of the season in Houston, but I don’t think the Texans have the firepower to win by 10 points either.
Pick: Cincinnati

New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
The Steelers are a scary team to play at home, but we’re talking about the defending Super Bowl champions here. They’re used to being the underdog, but they’ve also grown accustomed to winning. Eli is currently the better Manning.
Pick: New York Giants

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)
This is a battle between two hopeless teams in an even more hopeless division. The Seahawks are injury-ridden and they do remarkably bad on the road. With Frank Gore bashing his way through the line, the Niners will win one at home.
Pick: San Francisco

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
You want good Monday Night Football? You’re going to get good Monday Night Football. The Titans are the only undefeated team in the league and it doesn’t seem like anyone can stop them. Can Peyton do it? I think so.
Pick: Indianapolis