Beyond the Rhetoric

 
 
 

Evaluating My 10 Predictions for 2012

December 27th, 2012 by

IMG_0236

And so, another year is about to draw to an end. You might remember that twelve months ago, I made a series of predictions about what I thought might happen in 2012, so let’s take a moment to reflect on what I saw in the crystal ball.

1. The World Does Not End
Correct

I don’t think anyone had any kind of genuine concern about the “Mayan Apocalypse” that was supposed to happen on December 21, but in any case, we’re still here. As far as I can tell, the undead are not roaming the streets, blood is not raining from the sky, and extraterrestrial overlords haven’t come to enslave us all. What this means is that you might have to give some serious thought to those new year’s resolutions if you want to make it through 2013.

2. Barack Obama Wins 2012 Election
Correct

Not only is he still the President of the United States, but Barack Obama was also named as Time Magazine’s Person of the Year. He also received that honor in 2008 when he won that year’s election. I don’t think this result surprised too many people, even if some pundits tried to convince us otherwise.

3. Baltimore Ravens Are Super Bowl XLVI Champions
Incorrect

The Baltimore Ravens beat the Houston Texans in the second round of the 2011-2012 NFL playoffs, but they lost to the New England Patriots (23-20) in the AFC championship game. Unfortunately for the Patriots, they were then defeated by Eli Manning and the New York Giants in the Super Bowl by a score of 21-17.

4. Canucks Get Stanley Cup Rematch with Bruins
Incorrect

This was looking good. The Canucks had the top seed in the Western Conference and the Boston Bruins were the second seed in the Eastern Conference. However, it seems like I couldn’t be more wrong about the final result. The Canucks were overwhelmed 4-1 by the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Los Angeles Kings in the first round, while the Bruins were ousted by the Washington Capitals 4-3, also in the first round. Given the ongoing lockout, I’m not particularly optimistic about a rematch in spring 2013 either.

5. Canada Finishes Top 16 Total Medals at 2012 Olympics
Correct

Depending on who you ask, the medal ranking for the Olympic Games can be interpreted in two different ways: by number of gold medals or by number of total medals. This is why I was careful to say that Team Canada would finish in the top 16 for total medals in London. In this regard, I was correct. They had a total medal count of 18, tying them for 13th overall place with Hungary. However, if you were to go with the ranking system by total golds first, Canada is far further down the list in 36th place with just one gold medal. That was awarded to Rosie MacLennan in women’s trampoline.

6. Amazon Does Not Buy Research in Motion
Correct

BlackBerry-maker Research in Motion has clearly seen brighter days, but the company has not (yet) been sold to another company just yet. I wouldn’t dismiss this possibility for the future, but as it stands, RIM is still alive and they’re prepping the new OS (and the accompanying family of new devices) for 2013.

7. Nintendo 3DS and PlayStation Vita Struggle for Attention
Correct

Speaking of smartphones and mobile devices, these standalone portable gaming systems may be fun, but they’re not the dominating force that they once were. I own a 3DS, but I find myself playing far more games on my Android smartphone instead.

8. Google+ Continues to Play Second (or Third) Fiddle
Correct

It may be true that Google+ made some big strides in 2012, especially with greater integration in YouTube and other Google properties, but I think most of us would agree that Facebook and Twitter are still the dominant forces in the world of social media.

9. US Dollar Breaks 1.10 Vs. Canadian Dollar
Incorrect

I was so hopeful, mainly because currency exchange rates are one of the most important business factors outside of my control. I really want to see a stronger US dollar, but the economy hasn’t quite responded. In fact, from the data I was able to gather, the USD-CAD exchange rate only had a 52-week high of 1.0446, nowhere near my hopeful projection of 1.1000.

10. Seven Movies Are Nominated for Best Picture Oscar
Incorrect

Last but not least, we turn to the 84th Annual Academy Awards. They opened up the Best Picture Oscar to up to ten films, so I projected seven nominees. I was wrong. They went with a total of nine nominees: The Artist (winner), The Descendants, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Tree of Life and War Horse.

Final Score: 6 Correct, 4 Incorrect

That’s not too bad, actually, but it could certainly be a lot better. I’ll likely put together a list of 10 predictions for 2013 and I’ll post that up early in the new year. In the meantime, take a moment to reflect on the year that was and then look ahead to the year to come.

Tags: , , ,

Filed under Stuff.    RSS Feed

Related Reading:

7 Responses to “Evaluating My 10 Predictions for 2012”

  1. Cloud Server says:

    That isn’t too bad. Nice job on your predictions.

  2. Ray Ebersole says:

    I do believe you should throw out #1 and #5 because they are ones that were given to me…. :-) I almost wanted to say Obama winning was a given too, but that was more likely when you predicted.

    Overall you did fine, but lets go out on a limb this year with some really outrageous predictions.

    My one and only prediction for 2013 is that Apple will lose it’s fight with Samsung in Appeals and at the Supreme Court.

    • Michael Kwan says:

      There were some predictions that had Romney in a landslide, including some guy that was supposed to have accurately predicted every Presidential election in the last few decades.

      • Ray Ebersole says:

        Those guys that are supposed to predict everything correct like that are folks that I try to ignore. It’s like the guy William Gray that is supposed to be the expert in hurricane prediction. After living in Florida for 35 years I have found that he his “prediction” percent is the same as all weathermen, about 50/50.

        Predicting like you do is for fun, so whether or not you are right or wrong it was all educated guessing and makes for good conversation.

  3. Not bad, but I agree about number one an I’m pretty sure there have been more than 8 Academy Awards presentations :)

  4. Audra says:

    Well done job! Keep it up.

Leave a Reply